1. Joe Flacco is transforming from road warrior to roadkill
During the 2010 season, Flacco played on the road like every other team's worst nightmare. He completed two-thirds of his attempts, had a nearly 4-to-1 TD to interception ratio, and had a road QBR that was nearly 100% better than his home QBR. Even though he was quite a bit more pedestrian at home, Flacco looked like a quarterback on the precipice of joining the game's elite. However, over the last two seasons, he has transformed himself on the road from Mad Max to that cute little squirrel who picked the wrong time to cross the highway. In 2011, his QBR declined by nearly 30%, his completion percentage dived by nearly 10 points, and his TD to interception ratio went down to a much more ordinary 1.6-to-1. The transformation was complete by the end of 2012. First of all, his road QBR flatlined at 35.4, which was 42% worse than 2011 and nearly 60% worse than 2010. His completion percentage held steady, but his yards per attempt on the road dipped under 6, which represented a decline of nearly 1.5 yards from 2010. Finally, he nearly had as many road interceptions as road touchdowns. Conversely, Joe Flacco at home in 2012 looked very much like Joe Flacco on the road in 2010. His supporters will point to his two stellar performances on the road in last year's playoffs as evidence that he is turning the corner, but it doesn't feel like enough evidence to make a definitive statement. Flacco might very well get back to being a very good quarterback away from home in 2013, but his comeback won't be enough of a finished product to beat the Broncos on Thursday night.
2. Denver's passing attack will overwhelm the new look Baltimore defense
The Broncos passing game looks poised to have an historic season. In 2012, Denver was in the top five in eight statistical categories related to passing including yards per game, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdowns. All of this success occurred before they added Wes Welker to the mix. Welker joins the explosive Broncos offense after averaging 112 catches and 1,243 yards per year in his six seasons hanging with Tom Brady in Foxboro. Welker is a huge upgrade over last year's slot guy, Brandon Stokley, and figures to give Denver a great chance to become only the fifth team in NFL history to have three wide receivers amass 1,000 yards in the same season.
Meanwhile, the Ravens are in the middle of assimilating seven new starters on the defensive side of the ball. No longer will Peyton Manning have to deal with the intensity of Ray Lewis and the ball-hawking skills of Ed Reed. In their place, Manning gets to abuse a cast-off from Jaguars Island (Daryl Smith) and several new faces in the secondary (Michael Huff, James Ihedigbo, and Matt Elam). While it seems pretty obvious that Baltimore has sufficient talent on defense to be successful, the bigger issue seems to rest in their ability to mesh as a unit and play up to their talent level. Unfortunately, opening against one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses led by a future Hall of Fame quarterback seems like a recipe for disaster for a defense with so many new guys.
3. Missing offensive weapons will cause Ravens' offense to sputter
The Ravens have a capable running game led by Ray Rice and an exciting number one receiver in Torrey Smith, but they won’t be able to overcome the trade of Anquan Boldin to the 49ers and the injury to Dennis Pitta that will keep him out of the lineup for most of the season. Boldin and Pitta did not have stat lines that jumped off the page, but they were invaluable to Joe Flacco in the red zone and when he needed to convert critical third down opportunities. The big question that will begin to be answered on Thursday night is who on the active roster will step into the void left by Boldin and Pitta’s absence. Smith certainly has the explosive ability to get behind defenses on the nine route and turn short slant patterns into big gains, but does he have the down-to-down hunger and focus to make catches in critical situations, including the red zone and on third down. Keep in mind that the Ravens were so thrilled with the pass catchers at their disposal that they brought Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark off the street to improve the team. The bigger shock was that Stokley and Clark both made the 53-man roster, while a youngster like Tandon Doss got cut because he couldn’t take the next step in his development. The bottom line is that the talent level and productivity drops off steeply once you move beyond Torrey Smith on the depth chart. Even with Champ Bailey missing the game for the Broncos due to injury, Denver should focus their defensive attention on Smith and force the less talented members of the Ravens offense to beat them.
4. The Denver crowd will be in mid-season form
Since Baltimore was unable to host the opening game like past Super Bowl champions, the NFL has tried as hard as it can to make the Ravens feel at home on the road. One way the league has rolled out the welcome mat is by plastering the image of Joe Flacco in and around the Mile High City, including outside of Sports Authority Field. You can bet that the Bronco Nation is less than thrilled to be constantly reminded that the Ravens not only tore their collective hearts out last January, but also went on to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. The expectation is that the Denver crowd will have completely torn the NFL's red carpet to shreds by kickoff and will continue the audio-visual assault on the Ravens until the final whistle. The crowd noise will cause the Baltimore offense to misfire throughout the night and help the Broncos win going away.
5. Manning is money at home
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