Three Reasons Why the Rams Put Another Nail in 49ers Coffin

This week’s Thursday Night match-up featuring the Rams and the 49ers is proving difficult to evaluate for two major reasons.  First of all, both teams are kind of a mess right now.  The Rams are still licking their wounds after being completely destroyed in the Palace in Dallas last week. Their biggest warts are an underachieving defense, a lackluster running game, and a passing game that is perpetually stuck in neutral despite the additions of Jared Cook and Tavon Austin. Not exactly the type of team that inspires a lot of confidence. On the other side, the once mighty 49ers have been smacked in the mouth in consecutive weeks and they really haven’t fought back either time.  Adding to its woes, San Francisco had to pack up its three-ring circus and travel to St. Louis on a short week.  Even though Thursday Night football is an absolute crapshoot, it is a big advantage for the Rams to not have to travel.  However, this game should still be very tightly fought because both teams understand that they can ill afford to wake up Friday morning at 1-3.  My prediction is that the Rams will better exploit their advantages and will squeak out a close victory over the 49ers.  Here are three reasons why I think St. Louis will emerge victorious.

 

San Francisco’s injuries and absences will prove too much to overcome.

The 49ers have several key contributors listed as Questionable going into tonight’s game.  The player most likely to not play tonight is Nnamdi Asomugha, who is ailing with a knee injury that he sustained against Indianapolis.  The 49ers have already promoted cornerback Darryl Morris from the practice squad to take his place.  We can certainly debate whether playing without Asomugha is a positive or negative for the 49ers, but we can all agree that Sam Bradford and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer will be looking to test Morris early and often.  The bigger injury concern is related to All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis.  He has not practiced all week and it seems highly unlikely that his groin injury is going to magically improve enough for him to suit up tonight. His absence in the middle of the defense is going to leave a gaping hole that the 49ers will have to overcome on top of the fact that star pass rusher Aldon Smith is currently working on his personal problems rather than working over the St. Louis offensive line.  The 49ers could also be missing several valuable players on the offensive side of the football should Vernon Davis, Anthony Davis and Kyle Williams be unable to play.  The bottom line is that the Rams are healthier than the 49ers, which is a pretty huge advantage on a short week.

 

The San Francisco offense is a mess right now.

After a brilliant aerial display to begin the season, the 49ers offense has largely gone missing over the last two weeks.  Colin Kaepernick hasn’t completed more than 50% of his attempts since week one and the entire offense hasn’t generated more than 254 total yards in the last two games.   As a result, the 49ers begin week four as the 27^th ranked offense in the NFL and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious remedy for their offensive malaise on the horizon.  One approach they could take is to incorporate more read-option plays into the game plan, which was a big part of their success last season but has been largely absent in 2013.  However, this week might not be the best time to go this route because the Rams seem to play the 49ers very well plus they have had the benefit of watching how the Colts executed a masterful defensive game plan last week.  If the 49ers want to continue with the same offensive philosophy that they have used thus far, then they will need to get Vernon Davis into the line-up.  He is listed as questionable, but he at least practiced this week which is an improvement over the week prior.  The hope is that with Davis in the line-up the passing lanes will open up because he attracts so much defensive attention.  Either way, I just don’t think that the 49ers had enough time this week to clean up all of their offensive issues.  They might start taking steps in the right direction, but I see the St. Louis defensive line applying consistent pressure on Kaepernick, which will prevent San Francisco from completely hitting their stride.

 

St. Louis will be more efficient in the red zone.

Overall, I don’t see either team getting a lot of opportunities to score touchdowns.  Both teams have enough offensive issues right now that long, sustained drives are going to be few and far between, so I can definitely see a big special teams play or a critical turnover being the difference. In the end, I see the Rams being productive in the red zone when they get their opportunities. Currently, the Rams rank as one of the most efficient teams in the NFL at scoring touchdowns when they get inside the 20-yard line.  On the other hand, the 49ers have allowed their opponents to score touchdowns an astonishing 72% of the time in the red zone.  With Aldon Smith unavailable and Patrick Willis either out or limited by injury, I don’t see the 49ers getting better in this area.  In a close game, the Rams’ ability to score touchdowns instead of field goals will earn them a victory.